I'm still around.

I know, I don't blog as much as I should. I'm on Facebook and if you are on Facebook, I will find you and see about Adding you to the friend list. (BTW, this whole social networking thing is worse than high school). Anyway, as for the stock market. I do not recommend putting money into stocks right now. We have another leg down on the horizon. I think the S&P500 could go as high as 950 to 1000, but then we head further south, testing the lows of last year and possibly worse. Cash is king, so stay in cash or be ready to short the market (buy SDS 2x ultra short ETF).

D* in a Box - A Christmas Classic

Enough with MLB

Until MLB (Major League Baseball) puts a salary cap in place, I am going to stop being a fan of that league. I know I'm part to blame. I've paid to see my Red Sox, not exactly a poor team, play with their former $20 mill per year OF (Manny) and $16 mill per year P (Schilling). But this arms and bat race is out of hand. Especially when the Yankee's tie up over $400 million at the same time they are asking NYC taxpayers for $400 million to help pay for their new stadium.

Kenny Mayne is funny

What Channel Are You Watching?

I'm watching the SPX channel.


Having seen this I am planning on buying some in retirement accounts on Monday. This price channel won't last for ever, but it is heading up. If it breaks up and out of the channel, I will put even more money to work. If it breaks down and out of the channel, I will sell that money I plan to put to work. I will try and keep this chart updated.

Is the Bear Market over?

I'm not so sure. Here is the Weekly chart of SDS (SP 500 Ultra Short ETF).


UPDATE 12/12/08: Support for many of the ultra short ETF's were or are close to violated. There are some opportunities to go short, but this market is going straight down (for now).

Ok, no more day trading.

Not because I am losing money, but more because it is consuming way too much of my time. So what I have been working on for a few weeks is to finally figure out a trading strategy using StrategyDesk from TD Ameritrade. I've fiddled around with that software, but finally feel like I have a comfortable way to pick stocks, set stops and only need to check the portfolio every evening at most. The key is using the stocks weekly data vs. daily data. The stocks selected for purchase have to meet the requirements of having stock prices higher than certain moving averages. The final selection process is that the stock has to look "right" on the Fibonacci Retracement lines.

So what have I been buying? Well, yesterday I bought CECO (stop $1.20 below entry price). Today I bought PBCT (stop $1.12 below entry price).

UPDATE: Bought some UYG (Ultra 2x Financials). I don't have a stop on this, but will watch it closely. Why no stop on this? Well, it's trading near $5. So the stop would be at $2.50, and if it goes there then the whole financial system will collapse. I don't think that will happen. If it does, I will then worry more about other things than a $5 stock going to $0.

The Trend Is Your Friend

All In

I put all of one of my retirement accounts into the Ultra Long S&P 500 (symbol: SSO) today at the close of the market. The S&P 500 closed near 805. I don't expect to be in these shares long, but long enough to make 10% (hopefully).

What I am following.

Interesting Chart (DOW P/E)

Tough to argue with the chart. Buy when the P/E is under 10.

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As for my "Bought" this and "Sold" that. I am basically buying/selling the SSO (ultra long SP500) and SDS (ultra short SP500) on a daily basis. A good trade can get you a nice 10% return in a matter of hours. Some mutual funds would kill to do that in a year. Of course if they could do that no one would invest in the funds. Those that have the stomach to take the volatility swings would rather manage their own money. So what do the funds do? They buy and hold some stocks and buy fixed income derivatives to provide constant income. But there is the problem. The fixed income derivatives are the CDOs and other bonds that are now worthless, so the funds have to sell their buy and hold stocks to cover all the money that people are taking out of the funds either directly or through exchanges within their 401k's.

Sold my ultra short ETF's

Went into Ultra Long ETF's. Bought a bunch of SS0 (Ultra Long S&P500). I'd like to see the S&P get up to 890, but 870 is a line in the sand that it must cross first.

S&P 500 nearing a buying level?

Not sure if I would "buy & hold", but the S&P 500 looks to be nearing a line that was a good buying opportunity before. When I say buy, I mean buy the S&P 500 2x ETF (symbol: SSO). At that point I would be also selling my S&P 500 2x Short ETF (symbol: SDS).

Something big comes our way

Republican's raise taxes too.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has proposed $4.4 billion in tax increases.
MORE

Can't believe the Drudge Report or Fox News missed reporting on this. Actually, I can believe it.

Well, the DOW gave us a head-fake.

Looks like we lost the rally on Election day. No that doesn't mean I voted for McCain, it means that the stock rally did the ol' Sell On The News move. The S&P 500 looks like it could head back to 850.

As for the election this past Tuesday. Either guy (McCain or Obama) was going to get their hands tied when they walked into office. You can't throw Trillions into the banking industry, the wars (Iraq and Afghanistan) and entitlements and think that either guy is going to be able to keep taxes low. We are a service based economy. Until we can make much, much more here in the United States, then our Service based economy is going to fail us. Why? If people don't have money, are you willing to do a service for free? I'm not saying all service industries will fail. I'm saying that when you have millions of people who have lost their jobs in the last few months, then that is a lot of revenue taken out of what Federal, State and Local governments need to function. Keep in mind that we owe even more to China, Europe and any other governments that bought our bonds, aka National debt. Some may say to hell with them, don't pay. Ok, but then for the few exports we have, who is going to buy them? Certainly not the Countries we just told that we aren't paying our bill too. Plus, those Countries need us to pay to support their tax needs. It's an ugly circle, but until we can be a nation that will CUT ENTITLEMENTS and other spending, we are screwed!

James Island Cup

I will be coaching my son's second soccer tournament of the year this weekend. I first coached his team over the summer when the team played in a 3v3 tournament that took them to Disney World to compete in the 3v3 Nationals. I have coached them this fall in their regular season, but starting Saturday they compete in the James Island Cup, just a few miles from downtown Charleston.

Follow our results here. Our team is the Islanders. Check out how we are doing in the regular season here.